In a closely contested race, the 2024 Sri Lankan elections culminated in a narrow victory for Anura Kumara Dissanayake, marking a pivotal moment in the nation’s political landscape. Dissanayake’s win, seen by many as a referendum on economic recovery and governance reform, signals a shift in public sentiment toward stability and progress. This outcome not only reshapes the balance of power but also raises important questions about the future direction of Sri Lanka, particularly in economic policy, international relations, and social cohesion. The election results may be a turning point, with potential long-term implications for the region and the broader community.
This election is significant because it is the first time a third-party candidate has been elected president. The election was a three-way contest between Wickremesinghe, Premadasa, and Dissanayake. The first vote count did not conclude with a majority for any candidate. Dissanayake won a plurality, 42.31%, followed by Premadasa with 32.76%. Incumbent President Wickremesinghe finished third, winning only 17.27% of the vote. Since no candidate won a majority, a second round of vote counting took place for the first time in Sri Lanka’s history under its limited ranked voting system. Dissanayake was declared the winner the day after, securing 55.89% of the vote in the second round.
Dissanayake is the leader of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The party began as a revolutionary communist movement that engaged in two uprisings against establishing a socialist state. However, with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, most communist parties throughout the world moderated their ideologies, and JVP was no exception. The JVP soon entered mainstream democratic politics and updated its ideology, abandoning its original Marxist policies. Despite this, the party still considers itself communist, and many of its members remain staunch hardliners. However, Dissanayake is part of the revisionist faction, embracing social democracy instead. Dhananath Fernando, CEO of the think tank Advocata Institute, said that Dissanayake “now advocates for a pro-trade approach, emphasizing the simplification of the tariff structure, improving the business environment, reforming tax administration, ending corruption, and positioning the private sector as the engine of growth. However, his stance on debt negotiations remains unclear.” Debt negotiation remains the principal question for Sri Lanka, considering its tumultuous history from 1948 to the present.
Sri Lanka has two main ethnic groups: the Sinhalese and the Tamils. This divide has persisted for much of the country’s history. However, most Tamils live in the Northern and Eastern provinces and are generally farther from urban and political centers. Thus, when Sri Lanka gained independence from Britain in 1948, a right-wing Sinhalese government was predictably formed, passing various laws that favored the Sinhalese over the Tamils. Most notably, the Sinhala Only Act of 1956 established Sinhalese as the official language. Tamils, who mostly do not speak Sinhala, were promptly forced out of government, universities, and other critical institutions. This act, along with various anti-Tamil pogroms, prompted the creation and popular support of Tamil militant groups that advocated independence for the Tamil people. Soon, a civil war ensued in 1983 that resulted in the deaths of more than 100,000 people and the forced disappearance and rapes of thousands of others, leading to widespread poverty, stunted economic development, and instability. When this war ended in 2009, the Sri Lankan government began ambitious development projects to reduce unemployment, rekindle stability, and promote interethnic harmony.
This strategy worked in the short term, but the government accumulated massive debt and had to be bailed out by the IMF in 2016. The IMF, or the International Monetary Fund, is a UN financial agency that focuses on the distribution of conditional aid. They provide loans but add conditions, usually centered around liberalization and privatization policies, ultimately benefitting major world powers such as the US and China. The IMF’s conditional aid required the country to pursue these policies, cutting public spending while increasing taxes, which hurt ordinary people the most and led to rampant poverty.
Sri Lanka had also developed its tourist sector, only for the COVID-19 pandemic to threaten it. The 2019 terrorist attacks on luxury hotels further exacerbated the situation. Tourism, previously the largest sector of the economy, disappeared overnight. Many businesses relocated to South India due to the general instability plaguing the nation. The national reserve of US dollars also crumbled, not only because of tourism but also due to the expensive projects and a food shortage caused by fertilizer regulations in 2021. The government can print Sri Lankan rupees, but foreign companies prefer payments in safer currencies. Thus, the government struggles to obtain foreign goods needed for the country to run efficiently. There are shortages of everything, and hyperinflation has made the existing goods unaffordable for most of the population.
In 2022, protests ousted the incumbent president and his cabinet. The new president, Wickremesinghe, was able to reverse inflation and helped the economy grow by 5%, but became unpopular due to harsh public spending cuts dictated by the IMF. Now, the people have chosen a new, third-party leader. So far, Dissanayake has vowed that the IMF programs will continue, but he will also seek to restart talks. However, he has very little negotiating power because his nation has come to depend on international aid to prevent economic collapse. Ultimately, what the IMF says is what goes.
Works Cited
Arasaratnam, Sinnappah. “History of Sri Lanka.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, inc., www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Sri-Lanka. Accessed 2 Oct. 2024.
Francis, Krishan. “Sri Lanka’s New President Says He’ll Restart Talks with the IMF to Find a Way out of Economic Crisis.” AP News, AP News, 26 Sept. 2024, apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-dissanayake-imf-economy-crisis-bailout-46ef677d78562a06137d637e32e426b2.
Tennekoon, Vidhura. “Sri Lankans Throw out Old Guard in Election Upset: What Nation’s New Marxist-Leaning Leader Means for Economy, IMF Loans.” The Conversation, 3 Oct. 2024, theconversation.com/sri-lankans-throw-out-old-guard-in-election-upset-what-nations-new-marxist-leaning-leader-means-for-economy-imf-loans-239649.
Pathirana, Saroj. “Could Marxist Anura Dissanayake Become Sri Lanka’s next President?” Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 15 Sept. 2024, www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/9/13/could-marxist-anura-dissanayake-become-sri-lankas-next-president.
“Presidential Election Results – 2024.” Live Sri Lanka Presidential Election Results 2024 | Real-Time Results, results.elections.gov.lk/. Accessed 2 Oct. 2024.